Suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) as an information duel

Blue strike aircraft enter region ? to attack Red targets. In Case 1, Blue conducts (preplanned) SEAD to establish air superiority. In the (reactive) SEAD scenario, which is Case 2, such superiority is already in place, but is jeopardized by prohibitive interference from Red, which threatens Blue's ability to conduct missions. We utilize both deterministic and stochastic models to explore optimal tactics for Red in such engagements. Policies are developed which will guide both Red's determination of the modes of operation of his engagement radar, and his choice of Blue opponent to target next. An index in the form of a simple transaction kill ratio plays a major role throughout. Published 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 723–742, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10046     

A facility reliability problem: Formulation,properties, and algorithm

Having a robustly designed supply chain network is one of the most effective ways to hedge against network disruptions because contingency plans in the event of a disruption are often significantly limited. In this article, we study the facility reliability problem: how to design a reliable supply chain network in the presence of random facility disruptions with the option of hardening selected facilities. We consider a facility location problem incorporating two types of facilities, one that is unreliable and another that is reliable (which is not subject to disruption, but is more expensive). We formulate this as a mixed integer programming model and develop a Lagrangian Relaxation‐based solution algorithm. We derive structural properties of the problem and show that for some values of the disruption probability, the problem reduces to the classical uncapacitated fixed charge location problem. In addition, we show that the proposed solution algorithm is not only capable of solving large‐scale problems, but is also computationally effective. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Casualty Rates of US Military Personnel During the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Abstract

In Operation Iraqi Freedom, which ended in August 2010, nearly 3500 hostile deaths occurred among US military personnel and 32,000 more were wounded in action (WIA). More than 1800 hostile deaths occurred during Operation Enduring Freedom (in and around Afghanistan) through 2014 and about 20,000 were WIA. A larger proportion of wounded personnel survived in Iraq and Afghanistan than during the Vietnam War, but the increased survival rates were not as high as some studies have asserted. The survival rates were 90.2% in Iraq and 91.6% in Afghanistan, compared with 86.5% in Vietnam. The casualty rates varied between the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and before, during, and after the respective surges. Amputation rates are difficult to measure consistently, but I estimate that 2.6% of all WIA and 9.0% of medically evacuated WIA from the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters combined resulted in the major loss of a limb. Elevated non-hostile death rates (including deaths due to accidents, illnesses, homicides, or suicides) resulted in about 220 more deaths in Iraq and about 200 more deaths in Afghanistan than would have been expected in peacetime among populations of the size deployed to those two conflicts.     

Analysis of an Alternative Military Healthcare Benefit Design

Abstract

The Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission was established by the Congress in 2013 to perform a systematic review of military compensation to address rising costs and other trends. Their recommendation for reforming the TRICARE health care program was sweeping, and differed greatly from earlier proposals that focused on increasing beneficiary cost shares. Specifically, the commission proposed overhauling the current benefit delivery model and replacing it with a premium-based insurance model offering a menu of DoD-sponsored private health plans. The analysis presented here is based on work that supported the commission by estimating the budgetary impact of its proposed reforms. Results indicate that movement towards the premium-based model would produce an annual budgetary cost savings in the $2 billion to $4 billion range, with a best savings estimate of $3.2 billion.     

Clinical Characterization of Insomnia among Veterans with PTSD: Identifying Risk Factors for Diagnosis and Treatment with Sedative-Hypnotics

Abstract

Insomnia is prevalent among Veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), it exacerbates PTSD symptoms, and it contributes to impaired functioning and quality of life. To improve treatment outcomes, it is important to identify risk factors for insomnia and sedative-hypnotic use. Classification and regression trees and logistic regression models were used to identify variables associated with insomnia or sedative-hypnotic use. Key findings include low insomnia diagnosis rates (3.5–5.6%) and high rates of sedative-hypnotics (44.2–49.0%). Younger Veterans and those without a breathing-related sleep disorder (BRSD) were more likely to receive an insomnia diagnosis. Veterans with greater service connection and those with an alcohol/substance use disorder were more likely to be prescribed sedative-hypnotics. Interaction terms may have identified potential groups at risk of being under-diagnosed with insomnia (i.e. non-black Veterans with psychiatric co-morbidity, black Veterans without psychiatric co-morbidity) as well as groups at risk for sedative-hypnotic use (i.e. younger Veterans without BRSD). In sum, Veterans with PTSD have high rates of sedative-hypnotic use despite minimal evidence they are effective. This is counter to recommendations indicating behavioral interventions are the first-line treatment. Policy changes are needed to reduce use of sedative-hypnotics and increase access to behavioral insomnia interventions.     

The Randomization of Terrorist Attacks

The purpose of this article is to explore the economic theoretical foundations of the idea that rational terrorist organizations deliberately randomize their attacks (by type, timing, location, and targets) to generate uncertainty and intimidation. A choice theoretic framework is applied to the analysis of the terrorist organization's behavior to determine whether welfare (utility) gains from the randomization of terrorist attacks are plausible and feasible. The randomization of attacks can appear to promise higher amounts of political influence for each resource input but it turns out that randomization cannot manufacture a situation where higher amounts of political influence are obtained for each resource input.The results imply that, rather than randomization and instability, the rational terrorist organization is more likely to prefer stability. The findings and implications provide a theoretical explanation for the non-randomness of terrorist attacks.Thismay be one small step towards explaining the patterns – non-randomness – in the time-series of terrorist incidents.     

艰难的“氢弹决策”

第二次世界大战后，美苏展开了长达40余年的冷战，以核武器为重要标志的军备竞赛，如同“达摩克利斯之剑”，将全世界都笼罩在“第三次世界大战”、“核冬天”的阴影之下。1950年1月，美国总统杜鲁门作出研发氢弹的决定，成为一项在整个冷战期间具有里程碑意义的战略决策。     

The multiplicative representation for multiple objectives optimization with an application for arms procurement

Multiple Objectives Optimization is much seen in combination with linear functions and even with linear programming, together with an adding of the objectives by using weights. With distance functions, normalization instead of weights is used. It is also possible that together with an additive direct influence of the objectives on the utility function a mutual utility of the objectives exists under the form of a multiplicative representation. A critical comment is brought on some representations of this kind. A full‐multiplicative form may offer other opportunities, which will be discussed at length in an effort to exclude weights and normalization. This theoretical approach is followed by an application for arms procurement. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 327–340, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10014